A mixed week of data last week with US data giving us ammo for the bulls, stronger CPI, and for the bears, weaker GDP. Yellen also over the weekend gave us bullish comments followed be bearish detail. Confused ? Don’t worry. SO is the Fed it would seem!
Right. Let’s look to the future not the past.
This week is another week of relatively light data. As a general rule, the underlying trends will tend to influence market direction and I see no difference this week leading into US Payrolls data on Friday.
I’m seeing a number of setups following on from last week’s price action at week’s end, as phase 2 retracements potentially come to an end and the market threatens new phase 1 USD buying.
Monday’s price action so far is reflecting strong equity markets and strong USD.
Oil reversed its recent 5 day bull run on Friday and now looks to be rolling over on the back of bearish train-track price formation and potential head and shoulders. Gold reflecting the same price formation and again looks for a potential phase 1 move lower on the back of USD strength ! (More money to buy diamonds for the ladies!!)
Data Highlights Ahead – Monday 30th March is deadline for Greece reform Proposals!
- (Data light on til Friday with mostly 2nd Tier data.)
EUR/USD – Thursday’s outside reversal bar closing right on the 38.2% retrace level and breaking the phase 2 trend line support has effectively changed the outlook. Friday’s seller bar with close above the same retrace stalled the move. Today’s selling has confirmed the USD strength and the close will give us hopefully the direction for the week. Yes, I’m bearish.
Resistance: 1.0870, 1.1000, 1.1050
Support: 1.0820, 1.0770, 1.0650, 1.0460
USD/JPY – Again Thursday’s spike low tested and broke the 50% retrace at 118.80 and closed as a low test bar. Friday doji bar. Today, a new story. Outside reversal bar and as I type breaking above 119.70 retrace resistance.
Resistance: 120.20, 120.60, 121.50
Support: 119.10, 118.80, 118.30
GBP/USD – Buyer bars followed by seller bars. High tests, low tests. Stuck in range. Couldn’t sustain any break above first short term 38.2% retrace at 1.4980. Look for shorting opportunities at the moment.
Resistance: 1.4980, 1.5030, 1.5090, 1.5200
Support: 1.4800, 1.4720, 1.4630
AUD/USD – Has probably led the way with Friday’s bearish continuation bar on the back of Iron Ore selling doing the damage. Sold off all day as market looks to nest weeks RBA potential rate cut.
Resistance: 0.7720, 0.7750, 0.7840
Support: 0.7640, 0.7600, 0.7550
-Apologies that this morning’s Prop Q n A did not record.
Other currency pairs covered were;
USDSGD – Potential long set up.
USDSEK – Potential long setup.
USDNOK – Potential long setup.
USDCAD – Potential long set up.
(Oil again technically looks like it could rollover and test recent lows.)
GBPAUD – Setting up nicely for those who bought last week on the train-track formation. Bullish close on Friday abve 50% retrace and bullish continuation bar. Just reward for the believers!!! Well done ! Scale in as it breaks the levels.